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Thread: Economists see longest recession since World war II

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    Economists see longest recession since World war II

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. recession will probably be the longest since World War Two and could worsen without heavy government spending, according to a closely-watched survey of economists released on Saturday.

    The Blue Chip Economic Indicators poll of 52 economists from top financial firms, major companies and academia found that most expected a tepid recovery to begin later this year, with growth returning to more normal levels in 2010.

    A majority of those polled thought the recession would officially end in the third quarter of 2009, which would make this the longest downturn since World War Two.

    However, more than half of respondents thought unemployment would peak no earlier than 2010, suggesting that economic pain may linger long after the recession is technically over.

    For 2009, the consensus view was that real gross domestic product would fall 1.6 percent, gloomier than the previous month's forecast for a 1.1 percent decline. A drop of that magnitude would be the worst yearly performance since 1982.

    Merrill Lynch held the most pessimistic view, predicting a 2.8 percent decline, while Fedex Corp was the most optimistic of the bunch, forecasting just a 0.2 percent dip.

    "Much likely will depend on the relative success or failure of ongoing and prospective stimulus measures applied by government," Blue Chip's monthly newsletter said, adding that absent a stimulus package, "prospects would be much darker."

    The consensus opinion was that the stimulus plan would total $778 billion, with estimates ranging from $635 billion to $900 billion. President-elect Barack Obama has encountered some resistance in Congress, but a large spending package is widely expected to be approved next month.

    The economists seemed to conclude that government efforts to push down mortgage rates may stall. On average, they expected rates on 30-year conventional mortgages at 5.1 percent at the end of 2009, roughly where they are now.


     


    They forecast that the consumer price index would fall 0.4 percent this year, which would mark the first year-over-year decrease since 1955 and no doubt deepen investors' worries about deflation.

    The panelists were split on the outlook for the U.S. dollar, which some economists have warned may be headed for a steep slide this year as the U.S. deficit soars and the Treasury Department issues a record amount of debt.

    Nearly 48 percent thought the trade-weighted value of the dollar would end 2009 higher than its current level


    Reuters top ten news



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    Hmmm this is how foreign policy impacts internal situation .... n I guess Its not going to end any time soon if they continue to act on the same stupid policies ...... its not only US economical crisis they have put the world economy in lurch .....

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    yea i kno its affecting all around the world.. nd u kno wht they are doing now.. ok obama said that he will create like 2 million new jobs, and he will start using solar power energy for cars and everything. nd they brought the gas prices low by doing this, ppl wont buy hybird or cars that are solar powered, so that means that 2 million new jobs that he promised wont be created. than he said that he will put tax on gas, and now the gas prices are going up, so he wont tax the gas, that means nothing is going to health care... they are just creating a big mess for him, so it will be hard for him to fix.....politics man they are crazy....

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    i was writing soo fast that i just realized my eng doesnt even make sense... lol..its funny....

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    yeah .... he'll probably have to create those 2 million jobs in defence now ...... he can't do much about cleaning the mess that bush in his 2 tenures has made around the world .... he seems to be in a worng place on a wrong time ... one can only hope he'll be able to fulfill his promises and pull the US and the world out of this grim situation

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    exactly bush has just left a mess for him, nd it will atleast take him four years to fix stuff....its weird.. again its politics....

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    4 year is too short to clear this mess ... i don't think he'll be able to bring about the changes he promissed during election campaing ... he has to follow the same path and guidelines Pentagon and Intelligence agencies ask him to do ....

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    in my opinion it will not take more then a month to fix all these but... the problem is that they don't wanna do it...

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    sunny ur rite..u kno the whole recession thingi..abt the houses..u kno wht they can do, they can bring down the intrest rate, or dont take the intrest for like a year, so there wont be any more foreclosures ....nd u kno theres lots of things.. like i said its all POLITICS

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    yea haily, am fully agree wid u... this is just a game yar...

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